Predicting the 2019 Oscar Nominees

Welcome to your annual, fairly late, and way-too-long set of predictions for the major Oscar categories! This feels like a pretty wide-open year, so this could go somewhat badly. We’ll see tomorrow morning, when nominations are announced live at 8:20 a.m. eastern time. For all of the categories discussed below, I’ve ranked the possible nominees in order of their likelihood to receive a nomination. For Best Picture, the top 8 films listed are my official predictions. In every other category, the top five films listed are my official predictions.

BEST PICTURE

The Locks
1. ROMA
2. A Star is Born
3. The Favourite
4. Green Book

The Near-Locks

5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Vice

Safer Than You Think
7. First Man

There Better Be One of These
8. Black Panther
9. If Beale Street Could Talk

Hopefully Neither of These
10. Bohemian Rhapsody
11. Mary Poppins Returns

Vaguely Conceivable
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
13. First Reformed
14. Leave No Trace
15. Cold War
16. Eighth Grade
17. Crazy Rich Asians

A quick recap of the rules: To get a Best Picture nomination, a film must receive a minimum of 5% of the first-place votes. With an Academy membership of around 8,000, that means about 400 voters have to think something was the best film of the year to receive a nomination. For any film that gets over 10% of the first-place votes, something called the Surplus Rule goes into effect, and the second-place votes on all of the ballots for that film start getting added fractions of first-place votes, with the size of the fraction dependent on exactly how far over 10% of the first-place votes go to said ballots.

The math of that process is extremely complicated to lay out, but here’s the important thing to keep in mind—this likely only happens on a very small scale. While I’m sure the Surplus Rule does in fact go into effect for a handful of films every year, I would still expect those films to only get in the range of 11-14% of the first-place votes, meaning the added fractional votes going to other movies won’t be very large. Why do I doubt any film would get over 11-14% of the initial first-place votes? Because there are just too many great movies out there, and the increasingly widened demographics of the Academy will just be too split over them all. For one film to get 15-20% of the first-place votes would require a level of consensus that I just don’t think exists.

Okay, on to the list! With every film, we just need to ask ourselves, “Will 400 Academy members think this is the best film of the year?” For four of them, the answer is a quick and easy Yes. ROMA, A Star is Born, The Favourite, and Green Book all mostly appeal to different swaths of taste and especially to different Academy Branches, and they’re all the most passionately loved of their ilk. They’ll cruise to those 400 votes.

BlacKkKlansman and Vice are also pretty easy to get to Yes for. Of all of this year’s great progressive films about race (i.e. NOT Green Book), BlacKkKlansman seems to be the most popular, and should have no problem galvanizing voters who respond to that type of story. Vice, meanwhile, should have massive support from the Actors Branch, which is the largest branch in the Academy.

That emphatically concludes the easy part of this exercise. Those six movies receiving Best Picture nominations are what everyone agrees on. Everything past that is the subject of wildly dissenting theories. And the theory I feel the strongest about is that First Man is getting in. I don’t care what its absence from most other awards bodies means in terms of Oscar stats. Stats like that fall every year, and I’m predominantly concerned with the way Oscar voters think, not the conclusions suggested by spreadsheets of results from other voting bodies.

Last year, almost no pundits thought Darkest Hour would get in, but I did (and I wrote about why for Vanity Fair). The gist of the reasoning was that there are a lot of older Academy members who are very antiquated in their thinking of what a Great Movie is, and for many of them, a Great Movie involves a Great Man doing Great Things. For voters who prioritize—overtly or subconsciously—that kind of thinking, Darkest Hour was simply the only film that scratched that particular itch last year. That’s why I knew it was getting in, that’s why it did get in, and that’s why First Man is getting in this year. No other film among the possible contenders scratches the Great-Man-doing-Great-Things itch. (Unless you count a tough guy from the Bronx defeating racism, but let’s not even go there.)

First Man will be our seventh nominee, and that means we’re only looking for one or two more. Hopefully at least one of those spots will go to either Black Panther or If Beale Street Could Talk, two films that have seemingly fallen to the Best Picture bubble after being considered sure things for most of the year. Many pundits are confused why both have underwhelmed in awards season so far, but answering that is actually pretty easy if you’re willing to take your thinking to deeply pessimistic territory (something I excel at). Put very simply, there were just too many great films telling black stories in 2018 for voters to mentally contend with, and our overwhelmingly white sets of awards voters are not equipped to handle what would be a massive adjustment to their voting tendencies (i.e. only ever giving one spot to a “black film,” because that’s all that was ever needed).

When most people fill out any kind of favorites list, there’s an automatic inclination to narrow the field into a series of either/or choices. So we start grouping things together in ways that facilitate that sort of reasoning. If you’re making a list of your 5-10 favorite books or favorite movies, you would likely limit yourself to only one choice per author or director, and not because that’s the most accurate reflection of your taste, but because it’s easier and it makes your list feel more balanced. Though it’s terribly unfair, this is exactly the way white voters have been conditioned to think about films by black directors that tell black stories.

With Green Book and BlacKkKlansman likely already on a lot of ballots, Black Panther and Beale Street represent the third and fourth films about race competing for votes. (Films like Widows, The Hate U Give, Blindspotting, and Sorry to Bother You could never get past 5th place in this sad realm of thinking, which is why none of them ever even had a chance this awards season). For all four films to get in, collectively around 25% of the Academy would have to give their first-place vote to a film that is very overtly about racial injustice, and that may be way too much to expect of a voting body that is still over 85% white. Making things even more difficult for Black Panther and Beale Street, they are by far the “blackest” two movies in that foursome. While Green Book and BlacKkKlansman each have one black lead in a mostly white cast, Black Panther and Beale Street both have almost exclusively black casts, with only a few white actors in fairly small roles.

That’s why I don’t think both can get in (though I’d love to be wrong). It is, at best, an either/or debate, and at worst both miss out, which would justifiably provoke some deafening outrage. I’ve changed my mind between the two at least three times while writing this, but I’m finally settling in with Black Panther. Two things constantly on the minds of many Oscar voters are ratings for the telecast and the general perception of the awards’ relevancy. The whole “Popular Film” fiasco was largely seen as a way of ensuring Black Panther gets a major nomination, and although that half-baked scheme has been thankfully abandoned (for now), the concerns behind it haven’t been abandoned at all. I expect a lot of voters to rank Black Panther high on their ballot simply because they’re terrified of the optics if it doesn’t get in.

So I think Black Panther will take that 8th spot, and I’m stopping there. Like 2014 and 2015, I think this will be an 8-nominee year, because the films on the bubble have too much vote-splitting to overcome. Or at least that’s what I’m hoping happens with Bohemian Rhapsody and Mary Poppins Returns, because if either of those gets in at the expense of Beale Street, I will have a meltdown.

But I think the reasoning holds up. If A Star is Born is safely in—and it is—Bohemian Rhapsody and Mary Poppins Returns need to pull from too much of the same voter pool. It’s possible that Poppins has completely fallen out of contention, and if that’s the case, Rhapsody could galvanize enough voters to get two musicals nominated. It seems more likely, though, they they split the vote. For Bohemian Rhapsody to get nominated, it would need a substantial number of musical fans to rank it higher on their ballots than both A Star is Born and Mary Poppins Returns, a substantial amount of crowd-pleaser fans to rank it ahead of both Green Book and Black Panther, or a substantial portion of the Makeup Branch to rank it ahead of Vice. It’s possible that I’m thinking with my feelings here, but that seems like too tall of an order.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Only Actual Lock
1. Alfonso Cuarón, ROMA

Extremely Likely
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Probably Two of These
4. Damian Chazelle, First Man
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
7. Adam McKay, Vice

Eminently Possible
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Ughhhh
9. Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Who Knows With This Category?
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
11. Paul Schrader, First Reformed
12. Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
13. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

This is the hardest category to predict on the board, and simply drawing five of the top nine names out of a hat could easily yield better results than trying to reason things out. Alfonso Cuarón is getting in, and that’s really all we know. While it would be easy to think Bradley Cooper and Spike Lee are locks, Best Director is the category that has consistently provided the most surprises over the last several years, with apparent sure things like Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, and Ridley Scott getting shockingly omitted.

The Directors Branch of the Academy tends to be the most snobbish and the least populist, which is why I think Peter Farrelly has the lowest chances of the alleged contenders. Seemingly every year there are crowd-pleasers that get nominated for Best Picture but are left out here (recent examples include The Post, Hidden Figures, The Martian, and American Sniper), and I fully expect Green Book to join that dubious list. No, I don’t care that Farrelly got in with the DGA (who are far more populist), or the Globes (who simply don’t know shit). The Oscars are better than that. (I think.)

After that, there are seven names competing for four spots and really anything could happen. Cooper and Lee are the safest. Along with Cuarón, they’re the only two directors to get nominations from the DGA, BAFTA, Globes, and the Critics’ Choice Awards. Of course, Ridley Scott also got all four of those nominations for The Martian prior to his Oscar snub, so you really never know here. But I’m operating on the assumption that Cooper and Lee will get in, because you just have to start somewhere.

As with Best Picture, I think Coogler and Jenkins are sadly in an either/or battle here. Not only is the Oscars’ serious race problem once again a factor, but the Directors Branch is the single whitest branch in the Academy. There’s just no way three black directors are getting nominated. So if we accept that Spike already has a spot, there’s only one more left for a filmmaker of color. (Actually, there could be no more spots, and Spike Lee might be the only black director nominated. But I’m choosing to give the Directors Branch more credit than that, and hopefully I don’t regret it.)

Jenkins probably has a better chance than Coogler. Jenkins is the known commodity with these voters (having been nominated here for Moonlight two years ago), and Coogler not being nominated by the DGA—who are far more populist and should have gone head over heels for Black Panther—really worries me for his chances with a far more elitist set of voters. I know many pundits think Beale Street has mostly faded out of the conversation, but it could easily be this year’s Phantom Thread—the stunning work by a master filmmaker that largely underperformed during most of awards season but has a better showing with the Oscars.  

From there we’re left with Lanthimos, Chazelle, and McKay. McKay has been nominated by the DGA and Globes, while Lanthimos got in with BAFTA, and Chazelle has effectively shown up nowhere. But I just have a nagging feeling that Chazelle is getting nominated here, and I’m going with it. Both Vice and The Favourite are films that allow the acting and script to do the heavy lifting. Not only is the direction comparatively less obvious, but in both cases it could be seen as occasionally getting in the way of the film. The use of fish-eye lenses in The Favourite is consistently the only complaint levied against the film, while Vice’s entire approach just doesn’t work for a lot of people.

First Man, meanwhile, is almost purely a feat of direction. It’s a film that only succeeds on the back of a virtuoso filmmaker at the top of their game, and that’s the kind of thing the Academy Directors Branch exists to recognize. Of course it also helps that Chazelle won this award just two years ago, so voters view him as firmly in the club. And unlike Vice and The Favourite, which are both very heavy on the snark and are in some ways most likely to appeal to younger-skewing viewers, the classical filmmaking behind First Man will likely be especially applauded by the older members of this branch, of which there are a great many.

BEST ACTOR

The Locks
1. Christian Bale, Vice
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Pretty Likely
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

One of These
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Longshots
8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Best Actor for 2018 is the category of contenders that couldn’t come through. Major names like Hugh Jackman, Steve Carrell, Robert Redford, and Clint Eastwood were pencilled in as strong possibilities until their movies opened. And to a lesser extent, more was expected of Gosling, Hedges, and Dafoe than the fringe contention that they’ve settled into.

But what’s here is still a pretty strong and star-heavy lineup. Love or hate the movie, Christian Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney is so undeniable that it’s successfully sucked all of the air out of Bradley Cooper’s chances (and maybe A Star is Born right along with it). But even if he’s no longer the frontrunner, Cooper is sure to be in the field, as is Rami Malek, who is so good as Freddie Mercury that he’s almost single-handedly drug a movie with no stars (and without even a director!) into contention.

Viggo Mortensen is extremely likely to be the fourth nominee, but he’s not quite a lock because of all the controversies Green Room has been dealing with (one of which Viggo even brought on himself). We don’t quite know how Academy members will react to everything happening with that film, but the nomination is still his to lose.

That fifth spot is pretty tricky. Ethan Hawke has won by far the most critics prizes, but didn’t show up with SAG, BAFTA, or the Globes. John David Washington got recognized by both the Globes and SAG, but his nominations have felt more like a show of love for the film than solidifiers of his contention. And then there’s Gosling, who has been left out nearly everywhere (the Critics’ Choice Awards being the exception).

First Man and First Reformed are two films I expect to work far better for Academy voters than they have for other awards bodies, which is why I take both Gosling and Hawke very seriously here. Between the two, Hawke should have the edge. First Man is a film that depends far more on its technical aspects and score than it does on its actors, while First Reformed relies mostly on its script and performances. And the performances reflect this; while both give quiet, internal performances, Gosling might be too reserved. What would his Oscar clip even be?

Hawke should also prevail over Washington, but it’ll be close. Hawke just has a far better chance of being appreciated by the Academy’s older voters, who will no doubt respect the types of choices he’s consistently made throughout his career—and the things he’s stood for—while maintaining his status as a movie star. This category also tends to have at least one actor every year from a smaller arthouse film, and our four locks—Bale, Cooper, Malek, and Viggo—are all from big popular movies playing at the multiplex (three of which are loudly and passionately derided by critics). Hawke will help add a prestige element to a race that sorely needs it.

BEST ACTRESS

The Locks
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Extremely Likely
3. Glenn Close, The Wife
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Probably One of These?
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
6. Yalitza Aparicio, ROMA

Still Have a Shot
7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary
9. Viola Davis, Widows
10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Victims of a Remarkably Stacked Year
11. Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
12. Regina Hall, Support the Girls
13. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife
14. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
15. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
16. Keira Knightley, Colette
17. KiKi Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
18. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
19. Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
20. Charlize Theron, Tully

Welcome to the most stacked race of the year, and maybe the most stacked Best Actress race ever. (It’s certainly the first time I’ve felt compelled to list 20 names for a category as part of my nomination rundown.) In a different year, numbers 12 through 16 on the above list easily could have been the five nominees. This year they’re barely getting serious consideration.

But like the other acting races this year, the field seems to have settled down to four extremely safe bets and one question mark. Gaga, Colman, Close, and McCarthy have all been nominated from every precursor, and they’ll all get in here. But what happens with that fifth slot is anyone’s guess.

Blunt took the fifth spot with SAG, and she also got in with the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards (both of whom name more than five nominees). But Viola Davis took the fifth spot with BAFTA, where a popular British actress like Emily Blunt playing a British icon like Mary Poppins would have seemed like a more obvious choice. Davis, however, hasn’t gotten in anywhere else, and Widows just doesn’t seem to have gained any traction with Oscar voters.

I would pick Collette for the fifth spot without hesitation if I had any faith that voters actually watched Hereditary. Everyone that sees it agrees she’s absolutely incredible in the film, but getting the Academy to give the time of day to a pure horror movie is usually impossible. The fact that she’s even still viewed as a decent possibility is a testament to how powerful her performance really is.

Saoirse Ronan, on the other hand, really isn’t being viewed as a possibility anywhere, and that surprises me. While I ultimately don’t think she’ll get in, I do think she’s a much stronger possibility than others are giving her credit for. Ronan is clearly loved by the Academy, Mary Queen of Scots is an actor’s movie with showy performances, and we know voters will watch it because Robbie is a strong contender. So what’s missing here? Really nothing, other than the self-fulfilling fact that everyone apparently agrees something is. That can be hard to overcome.

If neither Ronan or Collette can break through, the biggest threat to Blunt is Yalitza Aparicio, who anchors the most beautiful film of the year with a precise and perfectly understated performance. The only major nomination Aparicio has gotten so far has been with the Critics’ Choice Awards, but she’s been constantly visible on the campaign circuit and overall love for ROMA could push her through.

In the end, I think two factors will ensure Blunt’s name gets called for that fifth spot. First of all, her performance should appeal to a broader section of voters. Aparicio and Collette will primarily have to get their support from younger members of the Academy, and Ronan gives the kind of performance (and is in the kind of film) that’s tailor-made for more traditional tastes. But a Mary Poppins movie is more likely to reach every age range—older voters who remember the first one, and younger voters who grew up with it. Secondly, Blunt’s performance in A Quiet Place, which is a factor in the Supporting Actress race, will allow voters to feel that supporting her here kills two birds with one stone, and appropriately awards her for a great cumulative year. That’s why I think she’s our fifth nominee.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Locks
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Extremely Likely
3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

One of These
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Vaguely Possible
8. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

Sadly Never Gained Any Traction
12. Steven Yeun, Burning
13. Hugh Grant, Paddington 2
14. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
15. Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade

As per usual, Supporting Actor is one of the most stacked categories, but a strong amount of consensus seems to have settled in. Ali, Grant, Chalamet, and Driver have all been nominated absolutely everywhere. And though Elliott missed out with both SAG and BAFTA in favor of Rockwell that feels somewhat understandable; Rockwell is the reigning champ of this category (the kind of thing that has a lot of sway with SAG voters), while Elliott is more of a legend among the older American crowd (i.e. Academy voters). I think Elliott is safely in.

I’m weirdly not as convinced with Driver, though. It’s purely a hunch, but I just feel like the Actors Branch won’t respond to BlacKkKlansman quite as strongly as other awards bodies have. If Driver (or Elliott) doesn’t get in, Rockwell would, of course, be the obvious pick for a replacement, but I also think Michael B. Jordan still has a chance. Nearly every year there’s one acting nominee that gets in at the Oscars despite having been ignored everywhere else, and if that were to happen again this year, Michael B. Jordan would be my pick. That being said, I expect this category to go chalk, with the five candidates everyone is expecting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Locks
1. Amy Adams, Vice
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
4. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

A Total Toss-Up
5. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
6. Claire Foy, First Man

Fairly Possible
7. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, Leave No Trace
8. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
9. Linda Cardellini, Green Book
10. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
11. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Le Sigh
12. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
13. Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale

Adams, Stone, and Weisz have all gotten nominated from SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes, their films are strong contenders across multiple categories, and each of them has a history of Oscar love. So it’s pretty inconceivable that any of them would miss here. (And I don’t at all buy the idea that either Stone or Weisz could miss out because they’re from the same film; nearly everyone that likes The Favourite enough to vote for one of them will vote for both. Liking one performance is too inextricable from the other.)

Regina King was left out by both SAG and BAFTA, but her critical support and incredible speech after winning the Globe should be enough to get her in here. Beale Street was probably too arthouse for SAG, but I expect the Academy to react much more strongly to it. And though her omission from BAFTA is slightly concerning, it’s far more understandable when you realize that the two actresses who got in instead—Claire Foy and Margot Robbie—are either known for or nominated for playing beloved British Monarchs.

Oscar voters, though, are mostly American, which is why I think Foy and Robbie are fighting for the same spot here. Foy is in the movie that will have a lot more support from the whole Academy (and I even expect First Man to get a surprise Best Picture nomination), but the whole Academy isn’t voting for these nominations, only the Actors Branch is. That’s why I think Robbie will ultimately get the nomination. Mary Queen of Scots is far more of an “actor’s movie” than First Man is, Queen Elizabeth is a role that actors will appreciate far more than yet another nervous wife sending her husband off to danger, and Robbie has the momentum with these voters (having been nominated just last year for I, Tonya). There’s also a long history of Oscar voters reacting strongly to impossibly beautiful women allowing themselves to look ugly on screen, and Robbie’s climactic scene in Mary Queen of Scots certainly qualifies.

Both McKenzie and Blunt are eminently possible here, and their films—Leave No Trace and A Quiet Place, respectively—represent two of the great unknowns with this year’s nominations. No one has a sense of how much the Academy will or won’t respond to these movies, and they could each show up in several categories or nowhere at all without it being much of a surprise. But I certainly don’t feel confident enough to pick either over Robbie, and I expect voters to show their love for Blunt in the lead actress race rather than here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Locks
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
3. BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin 
Willmott)

Pretty Likely
4. A Star is Born (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, and Eric Roth)

One of These
5.The Death of Stalin (Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, and David 
Schneider)
6. Black Panther (Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole)
7. Leave No Trace (Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini)
8. First Man (Josh Singer)

Not Happening
9. Widows (Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen)
10. The Hate U Give (Audrey Wells)
11. Crazy Rich Asians (Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim)
12. Burning (Lee Chang-dong and Oh Jung-mi)
13. Boy Erased (Joel Edgerton)

Four of these slots seem to be pretty well locked up. Beale Street, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, BlacKkKlansman, and A Star is Born all got nominated from both the WGA and BAFTA. And while I have a nagging feeling that A Star is Born is slightly vulnerable, I’d still be pretty surprised if it didn’t get in. Like the acting categories, we’re probably just debating one spot here.

BAFTA gave that last slot to First Man, while the WGA went with Black Panther. Between those two, I’d give the better shot with the Academy Writers Branch to Black Panther. It showcases a more innovative approach to adapting material, and last year’s nomination in this category for Logan proves that superhero movies aren’t a deal breaker with these voters. In fact, I would have considered Black Panther a pseudo-lock if it weren’t for the existence of The Death of Stalin, which was nominated for the BAFTA last year (it was released in England in 2017, but not until 2018 in the US), and wasn’t eligible with the WGA.

The Death of Stalin was directed and co-written by Armando Iannucci, who is extremely popular with other writers. His HBO show, Veep, has won basically every writing award under the sun, and Iannucci’s only other film, 2009’s In the Loop, also landed an Oscar nomination in this category. The Death of Stalin is being largely looked over by pundits because the film hasn’t really shown up anywhere else during this awards season. But it hasn’t been eligible for those other places, meaning there’s really no data for how much voters like it compared to the competition. Instead we just have to bet on pedigree: The Death of Stalin is top-shelf Iannucci,  and betting against him for a writing award is historically not a smart thing to do.

The other strong possibility here is Leave No Trace, which also wasn’t eligible for the WGA Award. It’s the exact kind of perfectly wrought small film the Writers Branch loves to elevate, and no one should be surprised if it ends up with a nomination. But I think the unabashed love these voters have for Iannucci will win out.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Lone Lock
1. The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)

Four Spots, Five Choices
2. Vice (Adam McKay)
3. First Reformed (Paul Schrader) 
4. Eighth Grade (Bo Burnham)
5. ROMA (Alfonso Cuarón)
6. Green Book (Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga)

Legitimate Threats
7. Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski and Janusz Glowacki)
8. A Quiet Place (Scott Beck, Bryan Woods, and John Krasinski)
9. Sorry to Bother You (Boots Riley)

Never Gained a Foothold
10. Private Life (Tamara Jenkins)
11. Hereditary (Ari Aster)
12. Destroyer (Phil Hay and Matt Manfredi)

Besides Best Picture, Original Screenplay is actually the major category I’m most interested in (at least for the nominations), because it’s the one we know the least about. The Favourite is absolutely getting in. After that, there are five films that all look like they have a great chance to snag one of the four remaining spots. And it’s easy to make a case for why each of the five would be the one that misses out.

Vice is so divisive that several critics have actually called it the worst movie of the year—a criticism that is almost completely about the script. First Reformed couldn’t even get a nomination from the Writers Guild, and it hasn’t shown up in awards season at all beyond critics groups. Eighth Grade doesn’t have a chance at a nomination in any other Oscar category. ROMA is being heralded so loudly for it’s technical craft that it’s screenplay is virtually forgotten about. And the writers on Green Book recently had about the worst PR week of any Oscar contender ever. The question is, which of those pejoratives don’t matter much to voters, and which one actually matters a lot?

The critical response to Vice probably won’t make a difference to Writers Branch voters, who clearly seem to like McKay’s outside-the-box approach to telling stories audiences think they know (as evidenced by his Oscar win for the screenplay of 2015’s The Big Short). And the fact that both First Reformed and Eighth Grade might not get nominated anywhere else actually helps them here. The Original Screenplay category historically LOVES to elevate smaller, more innovative films that don’t get their due in the major races (recent examples include The Lobster, Ex Machina, and Nightcrawler).

As for First Reformed not getting a WGA nomination, I don’t think that’s relevant. Guild nominations always run a bit more populist than the Oscars, and there’s just no accounting for taste with guild voters. It makes sense that a lot of them wouldn’t understand or appreciate what Schrader was doing with First Reformed. That won’t be a problem with Oscar voters, who are (more or less) the smartest people at their craft. And I promise you, these voters know that Paul Schrader has never been nominated for an Oscar—seriously, never once, in any category—and there will be a substantial desire to rectify that.

For the last slot, Cold War and A Quiet Place both have a real chance to sneak in. The former has been surging of late, and it received a BAFTA nomination in this category, while the latter got nominated at the WGA and could win over the genre fans in the branch. But more than likely, that last slot will go to either ROMA or Green Book.

As recently as a week ago, I was counting ROMA out of this category. Of the six films seemingly competing for the five spots, it was the one that relied the least on its screenplay. But then someone went searching through Green Book writer Nick Vallelonga’s Twitter history, and what they found wasn’t pretty. There is a perfectly cogent argument that someone publicly agreeing with one of Donald Trump’s most appalling conspiracy theories has nothing to do with the art that person helps create. But when people are voting on the most prestigious award for their field, it’s really hard to be that stoic and impartial about all the shit you know. Honestly ask yourself, if YOU were in the Academy Writers Branch, and about to fill out your nominations ballot, how likely would you be to vote for someone that you had just found out, a day or two earlier, once tweeted anti-Muslim propaganda at Donald Trump?

The real question here is, do most Academy members vote early or do most of them vote at the last minute? Vallelonga’s Twitter bombshell was revealed on Day 3 of the 7-day window for nominations voting. How much of the Writers Branch had already voted? Who knows. But remember, the exact same thing happened to James Franco last year—allegations of sexual misconduct against him surfaced on Day 3 of the 7-day voting window, and it likely cost him a nomination. That seemingly proved that the last four days of Oscar voting matter a lot more than the first three, and I think that will hold true with Green Book’s screenplay this year.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Absolute Locks
1. ROMA (Mexico)
2. Cold War (Poland)

Reasonably Likely
3. The Guilty (Denmark)
4. Never Look Away (Germany)

Probably One of These
5. Burning (South Korea)
6. Shoplifters (Japan)

Possible Spoilers
7. Birds of Passage (Columbia)
8. Capernaum (Lebanon)

Not Gonna Happen
9. Ayka (Kazakhstan)

See my full breakdown of the Foreign Language Film race HERE.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Locks
1. Minding the Gap
2. Free Solo
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

In Fairly Good Position
4. Shirkers

One or the Other
5. RBG
6. Three Identical Strangers

Possible Spoilers
7. Crime + Punishment
8. On Her Shoulders
9. Dark Money
10. Of Fathers and Sons  
11. Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Not Gonna Happen
12. The Silence of Others
13. Charm City
14. Communion
15. The Distant Barking of Dogs

See my full breakdown of the Documentary Feature race HERE.

And that’s it! If you actually managed to read this whole thing in the 16 hours between when it posted and when the nominations get announced, I truly applaud your dedication (and your tolerance for my lack of ability to edit myself). Happy Oscars 2019, and here’s hoping the first round of voting doesn’t have racially depressing results. You know, like most years do.