Tomorrow
morning at an unreasonably early hour, two people going on virtually no sleep
and a lot of coffee will read something like 120 nominees in 24 categories,
much of which will be predictable and a fair amount of which will draw gasps
and agents worrying about their job security. Predicting where the specific
gasps will fall is an exercise in futility and counter-intuitive logic, but
it’s fun, so we (I) do it anyway.
I
won’t bother predicting the 18 sub-major categories, because that’s a crapshoot
that even I don’t have the time and patience for. But before we move onto the
Big Six, here are a few hopes I have for the 18 other categories:
*Wild Tales, which was my favorite film
at TIFF ’14, made the shortlist of 9 contenders for Best Foreign Language Film,
and I deeply hope it gets a nomination. It’s the horse for which I have the
most unbridled passion.
*While
these are all expected nominees, Birdman,
The Imitation Game, and Theory of Everything each had Original
Scores that blew me away, so I hope none get left out.
*Aside
from Citizen Four, which is
considered the shoo-in, my favorite documentaries of the year were Jodorowsky’s Dune and Life Itself, so I’d love to see both of
them get nominated.
*It’s
unlikely to get nominated anywhere, but Under
the Skin was my favorite under-seen/under-talked-about film of the year, so
I hope it shows up on the ballot, regardless of category, if only because that
will force more people to see it.
*Ida, the black and white foreign film
contender from Poland, is one of the most gorgeously shot films I’ve seen in a
while, with an unmoving camera that carefully composes each frame to look like
a beautiful old photo. I’d love to see it honored with a cinematography nomination.
*Whiplash was the most impressive editing
I saw this year, and that category will feel sorely lacking without it.
Best Supporting Actress
This
race often has the most surprises, both in nominations and winners, so
predictions here often run risky (everyone wants to predict the outlier) and
frequently wrong. Patricia Arquette is a sure thing, and Emma Stone probably
is. After that, no one knows anything. Keira Knightly and Meryl Streep are
reasonably safe bets, the former because of overall support for her film, and
the latter because she’s Meryl F-ing Streep. The fifth nominee could be anyone
from Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), or Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)--the three “safest”
bets--or some other name that even fewer people saw coming, like Carmen Ejogo
as Coretta Scott King (Selma).
The Prediction:
Patricia
Arquette, Boyhood
Laura
Dern, Wild
Keira
Knightly, The Imitation Game
Emma
Stone, Birdman
Meryl
Streep, Into the Woods
Where I’ll Be Wrong:
Dern
is an iffy prediction, especially because support for Wild seems tepid. The Golden Globes picked Chastain as their fifth
nominee, but I’m not sure if enough people in the Academy’s Actors branch
actually saw A Most Violent Year.
Support for Nightcrawler keeps growing,
so Russo could squeeze in here.
Best Supporting Actor
J.K.
Simmons is a sure thing, and Edward Norton, Ethan Hawke, and Mark Ruffalo are
pretty close to sure things. Ruffalo might be vulnerable because of recent Foxcatcher controversy, but it’s unclear
how many voters actually care about that stuff, especially in regards to the
acting races. The fifth slot doesn’t seem to have a good choice. The Globes and
others went with Robert Duvall (The Judge),
in what felt like an obvious Hey we had
to pick five move. If he doesn’t show up here, it’ll most likely be because
either Tom Wilkinson or Tim Roth—two Brits playing Southern politicians in Selma—beat him out. But that’s starting
to feel increasingly unlikely.
The Prediction:
Robert
Duvall, The Judge
Ethan
Hawke, Boyhood
Edward
Norton, Birdman
Mark
Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K.
Simmons, Whiplash
Where I’ll Be Wrong:
No
one knows who’ll end up in that fifth slot if it’s not Duvall. I’ll go with Tom
Wilkinson as my back-up pick, but I don’t feel great about it.
Best Actress
A
lot has been written about what seems to be the boring consensus of this race,
but I slightly disagree. When people talk about the consensus five nominees,
they’re talking about Reese Witherspoon, Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike,
Felicity Jones, and Jennifer Aniston, but I don’t see that conclusion as
foregone as others, because of the three names lurking on the outside. Hilary
Swank’s performance in The Homesman
seems under-seen, but the Academy clearly loves her. Marion Cotillard is a past
winner who anchored two well regarded films (The Immigrant and Two Days,
One Night), but votes for her could cancel each other out. Amy Adams, a
Golden Globe winner for Big Eyes, is
probably the biggest threat to spoil, and she is very good in a film that may
just be too forgettable for her performance to get nominated. Picking between
her and Aniston for the fifth slot is a toss-up, but I’ll play low risk and go
with the pack in predicting Aniston.
The Prediction:
Jennifer
Aniston, Cake
Felicity
Jones, Theory of Everything
Julianne
Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund
Pike, Gone Girl
Reese
Witherspoon, Wild
Where I’ll Be Wrong:
I
won’t be surprised at all to see Amy Adams’ name show up on the final list, and
even Swank or Cotillard wouldn’t be that shocking.
Moore and Witherspoon are the only two names that feel like real locks to me.
Best Actor
This
is the most difficult race to predict this year, because six people feel like
sure-things. Obviously, one of them isn’t. Michael Keaton is the only one who
surely can’t fall out. The others are all varying degrees of vulnerable, with
Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne probably the safest. The other
three—Steve Carell (Foxcatcher),
David Oyelowo (Selma), and Jake
Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)—are all
preparing for potential disappointment, or at least should be. If Gyllenhaal is
the one that falls out, that means the category would have five first-time
nominees, which feels kind of fun. If Oyelowo falls out, it would be an
all-white category, which always feels inappropriate. Oyelowo is the one who
missed out on the SAG nomination, and because Selma feels (to me) like more of a SAG movie than an Academy movie,
I think he’ll miss the cut here too. And all of this already assumes that
Timothy Spall (the Cannes winner for Mr.
Turner) and Bradley Cooper (American
Sniper) don’t even have a chance, which feels a bit premature and risky.
The Prediction:
Steve
Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict
Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake
Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael
Keaton, Birdman
Eddie
Redmayne, Theory of Everything
Where I’ll Be Wrong:
Oyelowo,
or even Bradley Cooper (who’s been nominated both of the last two years in this
category), knocking out Gyllenhaal or Steve Carell, who voters might see as
playing too similar characters and deciding to pick one or the other (Ye old “I
can only pick one sociopath” rule of voting).
Best Director
This
is the race where we know the least. Richard Linklater (Boyhood) and Alejandro
Inarritu (Birdman) seem like sure things, but when Ben Affleck and Kathryn
Bigelow were left out of this race two years ago, we emphatically learned Best
Director has no sure things. But for the sake of making things easier on
myself, I’m assuming they’re in. From there, it could go anywhere. There’s the
True-Story-With-Wide-Support Group, which includes Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), James Marsh (Theory of Everything), and Ava DuVernay
(Selma). There’s the
Hey-We-Like-This-Guy-And-We’ve-Nominated-Him-Before Group, which includes David
Fincher (Gone Girl) and Bennett Miller
(Foxcatcher). There’s the
How-Has-He-Never-Been-Nominated group, run by Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel). There’s the
Holy-Jesus-Exciting-New-Kid, which this category famously honored Benh Zeitlin
with two years ago for Beasts of the
Southern Wild, and Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
definitely qualifies. Then there’s the OMG-It’s-Clint-Eastwood category, which
(obviously) includes Clint Eastwood (American
Sniper).
So
how do we reduce those eight possibilities down to three? Quickly, I’ll do it like
this: First, I’m knocking off Wes Anderson, because it just seems like, at this
point, the Academy’s Directors branch isn’t a fan of his work. Next, Clint
Eastwood gets crossed off. Been there, done that. So now we have three groups
left, and I’ll take one name from each. I think Chazelle will get in, because
this race often likes the new kid, and Whiplash
was an amazingly directed film. (That should be worth something, right?!)
Between Fincher and Miller, I’ll take Miller. Gone Girl just might be too slight for some voters (it’s a dreaded
genre film), and Foxcatcher is
probably the more impressive directorial achievement anyway. I’ll eliminate Ava
DuVernay because of my belief that Selma just
wasn’t that artistically interesting, and hope voters agree. Lastly, between
Marsh and Tyldum, I’m going Tyldum on what is basically a coin flip, and the
added power of having a Weinstein name running your campaign.
The Prediction:
Damien
Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro
Inarritu, Birdman
Richard
Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett
Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten
Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Where I’ll Be Wrong:
Possibly,
everywhere. But most likely with Chazelle or Miller giving way to DuVernay or
Anderson.
Best Picture
We
know there will be at least five, no more than ten. The key is that a film
needs to get at least 5% of the first place votes to get a Best Picture
nomination, so being passionately loved by a small number matters more than
being fairly loved by a large number. Because of that, I’ll immediately
eliminate Gone Girl and The Grand Budapest Hotel. I just don’t
see 5% of the Academy thinking either of those was the best film of the year.
Birdman and Boyhood, the front-runners, are definitely in. I think The Imitation Game, Theory of Everything, and Selma
all get in because of the huge portion of the Academy that wants
a Best Picture winner to feel like a BEST PICTURE WINNER, as stuffy and
outdated as that sentiment may be. I also think Whiplash will get in because it’s the exact type of film that you
can easily imagine 5% of the Academy ranking #1 on their ballot. Its support
may not be wide-ranging, but it is loud and fervent.
From
there, the big question becomes “What to do with American Sniper and Foxcatcher?”
Sniper is likely to appeal to the
classicist voters, and Foxcatcher may
appeal to the same type of voters that also love Whiplash. In both cases, they run the risk of being cancelled out
by voter overlap. But ultimately, I think both will get in.
The Prediction:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Where I’ll Be Wrong:
American Sniper and Foxcatcher could both easily be left off, and a nomination for Grand Budapest Hotel would be a
surprise, but not a complete shock, especially given its Golden Globe win
proving that it may have more support than people anticipated. Though remember,
the Golden Globes and Oscars have no voter overlap, so its Globe win could just
as easily mean nothing at all.
