It’s time to predict the Oscar nominations, which will be
revealed painfully early in the morning on Tuesday, January 24. For each
category, I’ve listed the candidates in numeric order of what I think is their
likelihood of being nominated. For best picture, I think the top nine will be
nominated. For all other categories, it’s the top five.
BEST PICTURE
The Holy Trinity:
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
The Nearly Sure Thing:
4. Hidden Figures
The Steak Eaters’ Pick:
5. Hacksaw Ridge
Probably These:
6. Arrival
7. Lion
The Art House Picks:
8. Hell or High Water
9. Jackie
Probably Not These:
10. Silence
11. Captain Fantastic
12. Fences
13. Nocturnal Animals
14. Deadpool
15. Loving
16. 20th Century Women
When predicting the nominees for best picture, process is
key—and it’s a process that’s almost completely different than the one that
decides the best picture winner. For
that, second place votes are crucial. But for the nomination process, they
don’t mean a thing. Here, it’s all about the first place votes.
To get a best picture nomination, you have to achieve a
minimum of 5% of the first place votes. The raw numbers of that means that
around 325 members of the Academy have to think you were *The* best film of the
year. So it comes down to demographics—with every best picture candidate, what
branches and taste groups of the Academy seem likely to think it’s the very
best film of the year? And are there at least 300 or so people in those groups?
There are seven candidates that I don’t think meet those
criteria. 20th Century Women
didn’t open early enough, Loving is a
movie that a lot of people respect but no one seems passionate about, and
people love Deadpool but it’s still
extremely difficult to imagine more than 300 Academy members naming it the best
film of the year. Nocturnal Animals has
been extremely well reviewed and will be widely appreciated by the more arty
contingent of the Academy, but the problem is that those voters will also adore
Moonlight, and are there really over
300 of them that won’t put Moonlight
(or Jackie) higher on their ballots?
Captain Fantastic is
one I’ve wrestled with. People often forget that casting directors make up a
branch of the Academy, and there are few challenges better understood by
casting directors than assembling an utterly perfect ensemble of six children.
It’s also a film clearly loved by the actor’s branch—as evidenced by its best
ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards—AND by the writer’s branch. But how many
people in any of these branches will think it’s a better film than Moonlight, or Manchester by the Sea? Not enough, I think.
Silence still has
a decent chance because of the level of respect people have for Scorsese.
Remember, the last five features Scorsese released during Oscar season—The Wolf of Wall Street, Hugo, The Departed, The Aviator,
and Gangs of New York—all received
best picture nominations. But those films were also all a hell of a lot more
accessible than three hours of 17th century priests being tortured
in rural Japan. And the “daring cinephile” voting contingent that Scorsese is
used to cultivating has better choices this year.
With Fences, who
is championing this film besides actors? It’s hard to imagine Academy voters
from any other branch loving it, because it doesn’t show off the talents of any
of those branches. It’s not memorably directed, photographed, or edited, has no
effects/production design/makeup to speak of, barely even has a screenplay,
etc. Yes, the actor’s branch is the biggest one, and Fences could get in on their support alone, but how many actors
will think Fences is the better
display of their craft than Manchester by
the Sea?
For the last several years, one or two art house films have
rounded out the best picture slate—films that everyone knew had no chance of
winning, but which garnered enough support to get a nomination. Last year it
was Brooklyn and Room, and the years before that saw films like Whiplash, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, and Beasts of the
Southern Wild receive nominations. If you’re looking for what fits that
demo this year, Jackie and Hell or High Water are your best bets.
Both have broad appeal across Academy branches (directors, actors,
screenwriters, and editors) and fit a taste niche (Jackie is more obviously feminine than any other film in this
year’s race, and Hell or High Water is
one of the most masculine). I expect both to make the final field, but they
have one major hurdle to overcome—the broad consensus on the top three films.
In most years, there’s a lot of disagreement on the year’s best films, which
has led to eight or nine best picture nominees in every year since the rules
changed (the rules that now allow any number from five to ten). But this year,
it kind of seems that everyone agrees that either La La Land, Moonlight, or
Manchester by the Sea is the year’s
best film, and if each of those get around 20-25% of the first place votes, we
might be looking at a year with only six or seven best picture nominees.
On the other hand, both Lion
and Arrival give voters something
they aren’t finding in any of the other choices. Lion is a classic weepy that makes you believe good things can happen
in the world (plus it’s the sole candidate for the Weinstein Company, and their
focus on it should not be underestimated). And Arrival will be passionately supported by a lot of members of the
craft branches, particularly visual effects artists and production designers,
that don’t have another horse in the race. I think both are in.
And then there are the Steak Eaters. This term, coined by
Indiewire’s Anne Thompson, describes the typically old white male members of
the Academy that vote for “classic” Oscar fair—films that feel big in scope,
that probably tell stories of Great Heroic Men, and that remind them of the
Hollywood of old. You know, the kinds of movies that old white men tend to
like. In 2016, their film is Hacksaw
Ridge, and no matter how controversial Mel Gibson may be—I don’t expect him
to get a director nomination—it’s getting a best picture nomination.
Hidden Figures,
which was the #1 film in the country during voting (and still is), is surging,
and has extremely broad appeal. And the top three are the top three for a
reason. Consensus is consensus, and these are the few things that everyone
agrees on.
BEST DIRECTOR
The New Masters:
1. Damien
Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry
Jenkins, Moonlight
Almost Definitely:
3. Kenneth
Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Probably:
4. Denis
Villeneuve, Arrival
Fifth Slot Possibilities:
5. Pablo
Larraín, Jackie
6. Martin
Scorsese, Silence
7. Garth
Davis, Lion
8. Tom
Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9. Ted
Melfi, Hidden Figures
10. David
Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Persona Non Grata
11. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
The best director category has given us some major surprises
in recent years, such as Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow getting left out in
2013, and Ridley Scott’s snub just last year. The only truly safe bets are that
Chazelle and Jenkins will get nominated, and Mel Gibson won’t. Beyond that,
just about anything could happen. Lonergan seems like a third lock because his
film is so beloved, but it’s also not showy, and might strike some as a
masterpiece in writing and acting, but not direction. On the other hand, Denis
Villeneuve’s Arrival is far showier,
but this category has been notoriously cruel to genre films (Christopher Nolan,
for example, has never been nominated). But both Lonergan and Villeneuve
received nominations from the Directors Guild, and I think they’ll get in here.
The fifth slot is tricky. I don’t think Ted Melfi has a
great shot, because fair or unfair, Hidden
Figures is viewed as a more populist movie, and those don’t typically get
nominated in this category. Garth Davis got a nomination from the DGA, and Tom
Ford got a nomination from the Golden Globes. Both could be the fifth name here,
as could Martin Scorsese, who is certainly beloved by his fellow directors, and
if there’s any branch of the Academy that will appreciate the craft and
challenge of Silence, it’s the
directors. But I’m predicting Pablo Larraín will round out the field. He’s been a very well
respected international filmmaker for years (with his 2012 film, No, receiving a best foreign language
film nomination), he has two acclaimed films this year (the other is Neruda), and the subtle care he brings
to Jackie as a foreign filmmaker
working in English for the first time—not to mention deftly handling the story
of an American icon—should win over his fellow filmmakers.
BEST ACTOR
The Locks:
1. Casey
Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel
Washington, Fences
The Near-Lock:
3. Ryan
Gosling, La La Land
Pretty Likely:
4. Viggo
Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew
Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
The Spoiler:
6. Joel
Edgerton, Loving
Long Shots:
7. Tom
Hanks, Sully
8. Michael
Keaton, The Founder
There are two acting categories this year that look like we
already know the five nominees AND the winner: best actor and best supporting
actress. For best actor, really the only question is whether Edgerton can knock
out one of the presumed nominees. But Loving
is fading fast (it might actually not get a single nomination), and not
only are Hacksaw Ridge and Captain Fantastic much buzzier films at
the moment, their lead actors also give showier (and I would say better)
performances. It’s hard to imagine Edgerton knocking out either one. As for the
long shots, Keaton’s film looks dead in the water, and if Hanks couldn’t get a
SAG nomination, where the more populist stuff stands a better shot, then it’s
hard to imagine him breaking through here. Affleck, Denzel, Gosling, Viggo, and
Garfield will be the five nominees.
BEST ACTRESS
The Only Lock:
1. Emma
Stone, La La Land
Five Names, Four Slots:
2. Natalie
Portman, Jackie
3. Amy
Adams, Arrival
4. Annette
Bening, 20th Century Women
5. Meryl
Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6. Isabelle
Huppert, Elle
Faded From the Conversation:
7. Ruth
Negga, Loving
Joined the Conversation Too Late:
8. Taraji
P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Anyone that says they know what’s happening in this category
is lying, because there are six women assumed to be in, and math dictates that
one of them won’t be. Who that will be is tricky. Portman has been widely
acclaimed, but some don’t like her voice as Jackie O, and Jackie might turn out to be one of those films that only critics
like. Arrival was an acclaimed hit,
but genre films rarely get nominated in acting races. Bening is assumed to be a
sentimental favorite here, but who knows if voters even actually watched 20th Century Women (SAG
voters sure didn’t; or worse, they did and just found it unworthy). Before the
Golden Globes, I thought Streep could be the one to get left out, but her
anti-Trump speech might have solidified voters’ love for her (and that career
montage sure didn’t hurt). And Huppert just won the Globe (which at least might
inspire voters to watch Elle), but
who knows how enthused her fellow actors will be for a French film about a
woman that maybe enjoys being raped—especially in this political climate.
One of these women will be disappointed Tuesday morning, and
I think it’ll be Huppert. While she’s a legend to critics that see all her
French films, other actors might not see her that way, so she won’t be
perceived as “due.” And, on the other hand, Adams and Bening are definitely
seen as due, which will increase their vote totals at the expense of… somebody
else.
And this all assumes that Negga has fallen out of the race
and Henson never quite got in. Maybe those aren’t safe assumptions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Sure Things:
1. Mahershala
Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff
Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev
Patel, Lion
Anybody’s Guess:
4. Hugh
Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas
Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
6. Kevin
Costner, Hidden Figures
7. Aaron
Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Pretty Doubtful:
8. Simon
Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
9. Ralph
Fiennes, A Bigger Splash
10. Trevante
Rhodes, Moonlight
11. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
12. Jovan
Adepo, Fences
Three weeks ago, it seemed like we knew the five names that
would be nominated here. But then Hidden
Figures became a massive hit (considerably elevating the odds of Costner
being nominated), and Aaron Taylor-Johnson somehow inexplicably won the Golden
Globe.
I still think this race will go chalk. The Globes voters is
a very small group that has no overlap with the Acamdey, so Taylor-Johnson’s
win means nothing beyond that it may inspire more Academy members to check out Nocturnal Animals. But that may just
lead to more support for Michael Shannon, and ultimately neither of them gets
the boost they need to leapfrog Grant or Hedges. Hugh Grant may suffer from
some category confusion—he was in the lead actor race at the Globes. But this
is where he’s being campaigned, and I expect this is where voters will put him (it's hard to be anything but supporting when acting with Meryl Streep).
Keep in mind, he’s never been nominated, and voters should relish the opportunity.
Hedges is in the most vulnerable spot, and I wouldn’t be
surprised at all if Costner bumps him out. Costner has been nominated once
before (best actor for Dances with Wolves),
but he remains underrated as an actor, and, on paper, it’s difficult to imagine
some kid beating him out. But that kid is really wonderful in the movie that’s
being lauded as the best “actors” film of the year, and overall support for Manchester by the Sea should push him through.
Personally, I’m sad that Helberg (who received a Globes
nomination and is, in my mind, the best part of Florence Foster Jenkins) and Ralph Fiennes (whose movie I hated but
his performance is wonderful) aren’t getting more of a chance here, but both
are considered major long shots.
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS
Just Hand Her the Damn Oscar Already:
1. Viola
Davis, Fences
Very Sure Things:
2. Michelle
Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi
Harris, Moonlight
Fairly Sure Things:
4. Octavia
Spencer, Hidden Figures
5. Nicole
Kidman, Lion
Vaguely Possible Spoilers:
6. Janelle
Monáe, Hidden Figures
7. Greta
Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Did Anyone Even See These?:
8. Julianne
Moore, Maggie’s Plan
9. Felicity
Jones, A Monster Calls
This is a five-woman race with five slots, so the math works
itself out quite nicely. While I wouldn’t completely count out Monáe (Hidden Figures is surging), this race is all but set in stone.
Davis, Williams, Harris, Spencer, and Kidman will be the five nominees, just as
they were at both the Globes and SAG Awards.
And that’s how it’ll go down! (Possibly.)